New Delhi & Guwahati: A’s* life in Morigaon, Assam, was once rooted in farming and fishing along the Brahmaputra River—until it began to swallow his land. 

As rising waters and perennial erosion claimed his home and crops, A was forced to leave behind the life he had built and relocated three hours away to Guwahati in search of work, taking up whatever odd jobs he could find to provide for his family of five. 

Today, the 39 year-old navigates the crowded city streets on a rented bike, delivering food to survive in the precarious gig economy. His story is one of many in Assam, where climate change and river erosion are uprooting entire communities, pushing them into uncertain futures, displaced by a changing environment they can no longer control. 

The issue extends beyond Assam—to flood-hit regions of Bihar, coastal communities in Odisha and West Bengal, drought-prone areas of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, glacial-retreat impacted villages of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and sinking islands in the Lakshadweep. 

In 1990, in its first-ever report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading international body for climate change assessment, acknowledged that “the gravest effects of climate change may be those on human migration.” 

In recent years researchers have increasingly adopted the term ‘climate mobility’ as a more inclusive concept, capturing a diversity of movements, such as displacement, relocation, long-term migration, and even immobility—that are not fully captured by the term ‘climate migration’.

Research has long established the link between climate change and human mobility, with increasing evidence of climate change (both slow-onset changes like erosion or drought and sudden-impact events like floods or earthquakes) driving movement both internally and across borders, placing the issue at the global negotiation table.

This recognition is yet to take hold in India.

In 2021 PM Modi set targets to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 and source half of India’s power from renewable sources by 2030. In 2024-25, the allocation for the ministry of new and renewable energy rose 143% over 2023-24.

But the allocation for the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change fell from Rs 118 crore in 2015 to Rs 20.94 crore in 2022-23, to zero in 2023-24 and 2024-25. 

These moves come alongside estimations that 14 million Indians were displaced due to climatic and environmental disruptions; a number that is predicted to grow more than three times to 45 million by 2050.

The Migration Blindspot

As recently as 2 December, 2024, in a reply to an unstarred question in the Lok Sabha on the subject of ‘climate-induced migration’, the government of India maintained that there was “no established study for India providing a quantified attribution of climate change triggering displacement of people”.

In December 2024, the economic advisory council to the Prime Minister published a report on domestic migration in India, outlining a number of influencing factors from which climate change remained conspicuously absent.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) in Geneva, 5.6 million people were internally displaced in India due to disasters between 2008-23 because of a combination of factors, such as increasing hazard intensity, high population exposure and high levels of social and economic vulnerability. 

While the IDMC admitted that not all disaster displacement was climate-related, it acknowledged the role of climate change in making weather events more frequent and intense, placing an increasing number of people at risk. 

A 2020 report by Action Aid and the Climate Action Network estimated that 14 million Indians were displaced due to climatic and environmental disruptions and projected that more than 45 million people will be forced to migrate from their homes by 2050.

When asked in Parliament about the Centre’s plan to rehabilitate climate-displaced people, the ministry of environment, forest and climate change (MoEFCC) said that the government was prepared to tackle the issue. However, till date, no evidence of such a plan can be found in government policy or public finance. 

Member of Parliament from Assam, Pradyut Bordoloi, who introduced a Private Member Bill in 2022 seeking to institutionalise protection and rehabilitation of communities displaced by climate change, said, “There is a need for a dedicated budget that looks at the issue of climate migration holistically—from monitoring and assessment of risk, to prevention and mitigation of migration, relief and compensation and finally resettlement, rehabilitation and reintegration.”

At present, neither union nor state governments have dedicated funds for climate displacement or climate-induced migration, with budgetary allocations focusing on broader adaptation strategies, thus, often excluding specific challenges of climate mobility. 

No Action Despite Evidence

“Displacement, whether caused by conflict or disasters, has received limited recognition in India,” said Bina Desai, former head of programmes at IDMC. “Internationally, it’s often treated as a matter of national sovereignty, but even within national policies, it has lacked focus.”

“The introduction of climate change into this discussion has not changed much,” said Desai. “Climate, of course, has a complex relationship with mobility—it influences and shapes patterns of movement in various ways.” 

Desai said countries around India, such as Bangladesh and even Pakistan, after major floods, were proactively framing and addressing the issue of climate migration as part of their climate adaptation plans, mitigation strategies, and broader development agendas.

“We’ve tended to frame cities and urbanisation as key to progress, assuming migration is always a deliberate choice for better opportunities,” said urban practitioner and policy expert, Aravind Unni. “But if we recognise the reality on ground—that many are being forced to move due to severe losses from floods in Assam and Bihar, droughts in Bundelkhand and Marathwada—this whole narrative of development is challenged.” 

“There needs to be a recognition that a growing segment of people are moving, and it is not wilful. It is driven by hardship, not choice,” said Unni.

Desai argued the issue was not necessarily the lack of knowledge or a gap in research and data and highlighted the challenge of India’s institutional landscape. 

“Institutionally, who would find it in their interest to champion it? If you look at the ministries and their various responsibilities, the complexity becomes even more layered when you factor in India’s federal structure,” she said. “States have significant control over certain policies, while national frameworks take a broader approach.” 

While entry points such as India’s commitment to the Sendai Framework—a UN adopted framework on disaster risk reduction—or the development of climate adaptation plans exist, where migration and displacement could be easily integrated, Desai pointed to a critical gap in leadership. 

“Who would take the lead? Who would push for it?” she said. “From what I see, there doesn’t seem to be any single agency, or part of the administrative setup that appears ready to champion this issue.”

While the MoEFCC finances and implements climate-related activities, migration typically falls under the purview of the ministry of labour and unemployment and the ministry of housing and urban affairs, creating gaps in budgeting and coordination. 

Disaster management is handled by the ministry of home affairs, maintaining that states hold primary responsibility to be complemented by union government support. 

The Public Finance Question 

India ranked 7th in the list of most-affected countries in weather-related losses and climate risks, according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, the most recent data available, as the effects of heat exposure, erratic rainfall and rising sea levels are felt across the sub-continent.

However, as the State of Climate Finance in India 2024 points out, the focus on climate adaptation (action to prepare for and adjust to climate change) in India is “under-represented”, whether in policy, finance or innovation. 

As a country with a large population and high poverty, which is predominantly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors, building capacity to adapt is critical.

India’s climate strategy is largely seen in terms of mitigation (efforts to reduce or prevent the causes of climate change) and adaptation (action to prepare for and adjust to climate change) measures. 

While net-zero targets and mitigation measures have tended to overshadow adaptation needs, both domestically and in the global arena, finance and implementation in this domain is a mounting concern.

In 2021, at COP-26, Modi set targets to achieve net-zero emissions (balancing the amount of greenhouse gas produced and removed from the atmosphere, through emission reduction and removal) by 2070 and source 50% of India’s power-generating capacity from renewable sources by 2030. 

Consecutive budgets since have focused on mitigation measures, evident in the rise in budgetary allocation for the renewable energy sector. In 2024-25, the ministry of new and renewable energy has been allocated Rs 19,100 crore, an increase of 143% over the revised estimate for 2023-24.

On the other hand, analysis by the Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability, a think-tank focusing on public policies and government finances, found that adaptation funding has been “diluted” through discontinuing or merging adaptation-specific schemes into broader schemes.

Addressing climate-induced mobility is a key part of climate adaptation, given it involves preparing for and managing impacts of climate change that compel communities to move. 

“Mitigation is easier to quantify, which is why it attracts funding—the government incentivizes it,” said Dr. Ravikant Joshi, urban finance and management specialist. “But who is willing to work with communities to build their resilience, protect their livelihoods, or strengthen their infrastructure? These are challenging tasks that require direct engagement with people.”

Joshi pointed out that while mitigation has market support incentives, no such support exists for adaptation. 

“This isn’t just an Indian problem,” he said. “Globally, the focus remains stuck on mitigation, with little progress toward adaptation.”

However, despite India’s adaptation financing efforts being heavily reliant (94%) on domestic sources, the issue of climate mobility still remains missing as a line item in the Union budget.

In the absence of dedicated funding, allocations for adaptation measures in general have to be looked at. 

While direct allocations through the MoEFCC largely focus on environmental protection, afforestation and pollution-control, adaptation measures remain underfunded compared to mitigation-focused ones. 

The National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change, set up in 2015 with an allocation of Rs 118 crore, was reduced to Rs 20.94 crore in 2022-23.

Made a non-scheme (no longer classified as a part of the government's planned schemes or projects) in November 2022, it consequently received no allocation in 2023-24 and 2024-25. 

The intention and direction for dedicated public funding often stems from climate action plans. The 2008 Nation Action Plan for Climate Change comprising eight national missions (approved over six years) addressing various aspects of climate action, finds no mention of climate-induced mobility, whether displacement or migration. 

From the 33 climate action plans submitted by states/UTs, while most make reference to economic-driven rural-urban migration, only 18 plans directly or indirectly refer to displacement and/or migration. 

Moreover, state plans for Uttarakhand and Bihar claim a lack of quantifiable data and propose a study considering significant migration within the state. However, to date, no publicly available information exists on the progress or outcomes of these proposed studies.

While few of the state plans that acknowledge the link between climate change and human movement follow through with a budgetary commitment, these are largely piecemeal, such as Odisha’s cyclone shelters, Assam’s anti-erosion infrastructure measures, Tripura’s allocation for research studies and Puducherry’s allocation for capacity-building—failing to look at migration and displacement holistically and in the longer-term, especially in terms of rehabilitation and relocation.

The Role Of Union & States

In India, state governments are key players on climate adaptation, with several vulnerable sectors like water resources, land and public health falling under state purview. 

With India’s national adaptation financing lacking a dedicated fund for addressing climate mobility, whether slow-onset or sudden-onset, this responsibility seems to fall on state governments with limited capacity.

If we are to envision a policy and public finance framework on climate mobility, how can the role of the Union and States be navigated?

Considering the extent of climate-induced movement across the country and that migration is not always intra-state and often inter-state, Bina Desai advocated for a stronger role of the Union in mainstreaming the issue.

“You would want to have a framework, policy and financing that covers the whole country—a dedicated role at the union level that oversees not just the policy development but also the follow-up,” said Desai. 

“However, you would also want that local government budgets, whether at the district or state level and even down to the panchayat level, are equipped to respond to migration as well as immigration,” she added.

Aravind Unni, urban practitioner and policy expert, argued for effective decentralisation as “disasters are often localized” requiring local governments to take on a bigger role in ensuring effective management and building resilience. 

“While the Center can provide strategic support, the primary responsibility and action must rest with local authorities,” said Unni. “Federalism, in its current form, is insufficient to address these challenges.” 

Unni called for constitutional amendments to empower local governments; which would require a robust transfer of both authority and financial resources. 

“Today, while climate adaptation has been decentralized to the state and district levels, cities have been completely excluded from this framework,” said Unni. “As a result our city action plans fail to account for movement.”

Looking Ahead

Unni said India’s policies were built around the idea of stable residency—your ID ties you to a place and affirms your belonging.

“But with communities on the move more than ever, are we prepared to navigate such a rapidly shifting landscape?” said Unni. 

Desai stressed the importance of framing the issue as a critical development challenge rather than solely as a climate issue. 

“It risks confining the problem to climate agendas alone,” said Desai. “This is something that needs to be addressed across multiple sectors—education plans, health systems, infrastructure planning, and labor rights, among others.”

It is often said that the only thing that is natural about a natural disaster—is the disaster itself. From the cause to vulnerabilities induced, preparedness and response, in every phase surrounding it, it is many years of action or inaction that goes on to determine outcomes. 

With the effects of climate change becoming commonplace, many researchers hold that the window to act is closing. Adaptation activities, including addressing climate displacement, will be significantly harder to implement and will require far more capital than it does today. 

The government must begin by recognising and accounting for the role of climate change in exacerbating disasters, either within existing disaster management frameworks or through a dedicated policy framework for climate-induced disasters, such as Bangladesh’s 2021 National Strategy on Internal Displacement or Uganda’s 2004 national policy for internally displaced persons. 

This is particularly crucial for India to leverage support through the forthcoming global loss and damage fund, considered the third pillar of climate finance to deal with losses beyond the limits of adaptation.

Policy frameworks must be adequately supported through budgetary allocation, with dedicated allotment for adaptation schemes that both prepare for and respond to climate-induced movement. 

This could include improved early-warning systems, relocation and rehabilitation support for displaced communities and livelihood diversification programs. 

Policy implementation and financing needs to look beyond immediate relief at-site and begin to provide for longer-term rehabilitation and support at the destination of displacement. 

Fiji’s planned relocation guidelines offer a framework to undertake climate change related relocation, with a relocation trust fund to support implementation, serving as a good model.

By embedding these aspects of climate adaptation into fiscal priorities and policy frameworks, India will be better equipped to withstand the growing impact of climate change, while safeguarding its most at-risk populations. 

(Evita Rodrigues is a legislative and policy researcher working on urban governance and climate resilience. She wrote this as part of the Smitu Kothari Fellowship from the Centre for Financial Accountability.)

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